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The Problem:- Cyclists believe anything that feeds their confirmation bias.
A new research study by Anne Goodman and Dr Rachel Aldred claims London’s controversial Low Traffic Neighbourhood scheme has reduced road injury incidents by up to 50% within London’s LTNs. The research, which you can read by clicking here, makes some rather dubious conclusions based on comparisons of a brief 3 month period in Oct-Dec 2020 compared to the same period in 2018 and 2019.
Of course, whenever Dr Rachel Aldred’s name appears on a transport study nowadays, you can assume there are going to be some dubious conclusions in there somewhere. Nonetheless, Sadiq Khan, The Mayor of London, quickly proclaimed the “independant research” proves the Low Traffic Neighbourhood Scheme is a magnificent success, and people need to get behind it more.
Well here’s the problem. The evidence is NOT clear – far from it. Setting aside the typical political spin most politicians tend to use nowadays, the reality is the reduced incident rates which are quoted in the Goodman report have far more to do with COVID lockdowns than they do with anything else.
The Fallacy:- Cycling would be perfectly safe if we could just get rid of motor vehicles.
It’s no secret most cycling advocates in London have declared war on cars nowadays. The battle lines are clearly drawn. One of the most common claims you’ll hear is this – motor vehicles cause untold deaths and injuries to cyclists, hence cyclists desperatey need BILLIONS more pounds to be spent on cycling infrastructure.
However, the Goodman reports shows some very interesting points which were conspicuously overlooked by London’s cyclists in their rush to praise a report which allowed them to hear what they want to hear.
- The total number of road car injuries fell by 22% across ALL of London during Oct-Dec 2020
- Boroughs which didn't have LTNs experienced the same drop in road injuries as those which DID have LTNs
- The reason car injuries fell by 22% across all 32 boroughs was due to COVID lockdowns, not LTNs
- The only 'road user category' whose injuries which went UP during Oct-Dec 2020 were cyclists
- In the boroughs which didn't have LTNs, pedestrian road injuries still dropped 31% regardless
Let’s take a moment to study the data contained in the Goodman report shall we?
The reader will note we’ve circled two data points in red. The first circle shows the average number of driver/passenger casualties for Oct-Dec in 2018 and 2019 across all of Greater London. The lower circle shows a 22% drop during Oct-Dec in 2020. So why did that happen? Well it didn’t happen because London’s drivers miraculously became BETTER drivers in just one year. It happened because there were 25% fewer cars on the road due to all the COVID lockdowns.
Which brings us to a burning question. In circumstances where massive numbers of motor vehicles were NOT on London’s road system, why were cyclists the only category of road user which had an increase in road injuries?
Let’s go back to the Goodman report again. Take a look at the blue circles. The number of cycling injuries across all 32 boroughs jumped UP by 11% from 923 to 1,023. Cyclists simply don’t want to admit what this data shows.
The Facts:- Cyclists regularly injure themselves without motor vehicles being involved.
Cyclists truly detest this particular ‘inconvenient truth’ because it doesn’t suit their agenda. And what is their agenda? It’s always about more cycling infrastructure. Any claim which supports their agenda is the stuff they keep pumping out like propaganda. Any person who dares to question their agenda is an anti-cycling hater who deserves their wrath.
So let’s take a look at the Holy Grail of cycling, The Netherlands.
Surprise, surprise… it turns out 52% of all serious road injuries are caused by cyclists banging the crap out of themselves without motor vehicles being involved. And what do we know about The Netherlands? On a per capita basis, the Dutch ride bicycles more than any other country in Europe – if not the world.
This is the dirty little secret that cycling advocates simply DO NOT WANT to admit. It’s not cars that injure cyclists the most, it’s themselves – and quite often they injure themselves very seriously too.
The reader might now be able to see why, even in circumstances where 25% FEWER cars were on London’s road system during Oct-December 2020, the total number of cycling injuries went up regardless. There were simply more cyclists on the road system. And they were injuring themselves in big numbers, just like they do in The Netherlands.
The Conclusion:- London's political establishment has been completely hijacked by the cycling lobby.
Like so many cities around the world, London is bursting to the seams with road traffic congestion. Sensing a once in a life time opportunity, London’s cycling lobby have cynically sold a fantasy to the city’s political establishment – specifically, if you spend enough money on ‘us’, we can solve your road congestion crisis…. honestly we can!
Bundled in that fantasy is a false claim which is pivotal to the lie – ie; cycling is perfectly safe if we can just get rid of cars. From the cycling lobby’s perspective, the solution to THAT requires spending billions on new cycling infrastructure.
This is why Single File Please wrote an article in April 2021 titled “London is about to have an explosion in cycling deaths”. You can read that article by clicking here. The premise behind that article ties in to the premise in this article. Cyclists keep claiming cycling infrastructure is the solution to London’s road congestion crisis – but the reality is a mere 0.5% of London’s road system is currently fully segregated.
Even in The Netherlands where one full quarter of the entire road system is fully segregated just for cyclists – they just had the worst number of cycling deaths in 25 years. And that’s WITH all their cycling infrastructure in place. If London ramps up the number of people riding to work, how can London possibly avoid an increase in cycling deaths with just 0.5% the road system fully segregated to cyclists? The answer is it can’t.
In closing…
As much as London’s cyclists might like to think they’re currently making huge inroads, as much as London’s LTN advocates might believe LTNs are making a huge change to the quality of life in London, the reality is this neither of these utopian solutions do anything to solve the bigger picture. Namely, where is all the road congestion truly coming from?
Unfortunately, London’s rail system failed to keep up with London’s expanding urban footprint during the 1980s and 1990s. An urban footprint which has now grown way beyond the 32 boroughs of municipal London. Every single day, no less than 1.8 million people (carried by 1.3 million vehicles) enter Greater London to go to work, and THAT is where all the road congestion pressure is coming from.
When cyclists claim they can solve the congestion crisis, quite frankly they’re deluding themselves. The only way to remove the unbearable strain currently being exerted on London’s road system is to get people OFF the road system, and to do it in huge numbers. Invariably that means heavy and light rail, and lots of it. As seen in this final info graphic.
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